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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/20/2008 3:23:46 PM
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inthysite
Posts: 770
Joined: 2/12/2008
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quote:
ORIGINAL: TaoPoohBear
quote:
ORIGINAL: cog41
Russia going next to Azerbajan or Armenia?
Neither, they got what they wanted -
Russian army seized arsenal of American weapons in Georgia
several mercenaries have been arrested
It doesn't sound like Russia is done quite yet:
Russia lashed out at the United States on Wednesday over a missile defense deal with Poland and warned ominously that Moscow's response to further development of the missile shield would go beyond diplomacy.
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"It is clear to us — and the U.S. leadership does not deny this — that the ... U.S. anti-missile defense in Europe will be broadened and modernized. In this case Russia will be forced to react, and not only through diplomatic demarches," the statement said.
It was not as stark as the warning from a Russian general last week that Poland is risking a Russian attack, possibly even with nuclear weapons, by agreeing to host American interceptors. But it came amid severe tension between Russia and the U.S. over the war in Georgia.Russia warns of response to missile shield
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/20/2008 4:35:11 PM
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cog41
Posts: 616
Joined: 7/16/2006
From: The Great State of Texas
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quote:
It was not as stark as the warning from a Russian general last week that Poland is risking a Russian attack, possibly even with nuclear weapons, by agreeing to host American interceptors. But it came amid severe tension between Russia and the U.S. over the war in Georgia.
We'll have to wait and see but I think they(the Russians)are serious. Oh well things are getting real interesting.
_____________________________
Psalm 122:6 Pray for the peace of Jerusalem: "May they prosper who love you."
Hook'em Horns! Roll Tide!
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/21/2008 10:34:50 AM
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TaoPoohBear
Posts: 554
Joined: 1/18/2008
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quote:
ORIGINAL: inthysite
quote:
ORIGINAL: TaoPoohBear
quote:
ORIGINAL: cog41
Russia going next to Azerbajan or Armenia?
Neither, they got what they wanted -
Russian army seized arsenal of American weapons in Georgia
several mercenaries have been arrested
It doesn't sound like Russia is done quite yet:
Russia lashed out at the United States on Wednesday over a missile defense deal with Poland and warned ominously that Moscow's response to further development of the missile shield would go beyond diplomacy.
...
"It is clear to us — and the U.S. leadership does not deny this — that the ... U.S. anti-missile defense in Europe will be broadened and modernized. In this case Russia will be forced to react, and not only through diplomatic demarches," the statement said.
It was not as stark as the warning from a Russian general last week that Poland is risking a Russian attack, possibly even with nuclear weapons, by agreeing to host American interceptors. But it came amid severe tension between Russia and the U.S. over the war in Georgia.Russia warns of response to missile shield
The Bush administration, having now thrown the ABM treaty out the window, has obviously decided that they want to have a go at poking the bear with a stick before they leave office.
The irony of WWII having started due to the Nazi's invasion of Poland being lost on them.
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/21/2008 11:24:59 AM
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cog41
Posts: 616
Joined: 7/16/2006
From: The Great State of Texas
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The Russians current attitude should be good cause for the ABM sytem in Poland. They are mad simply because the ABM system will make them work harder.
Please, everyone should have figured the Russians would rear their ugliness sooner or later.
_____________________________
Psalm 122:6 Pray for the peace of Jerusalem: "May they prosper who love you."
Hook'em Horns! Roll Tide!
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/21/2008 12:42:04 PM
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rlj
Posts: 2179
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quote:
The irony of WWII having started due to the Nazi's invasion of Poland being lost on them.
That's not true the Poles violated Germany's borders in the week leading up the invasion and the Poles vicously attacked and suppressed the Germans living in the Corridor in the week before the attack. Didn't you read Goebbels' official statement on the subject? ; )
_____________________________
-Roger
This is who I'm voting for. He is from the same party I voted for last time. This is consistent with my belief in the failure of the two party system and my disgust with it.
http://www.baldwin08.com/#
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/21/2008 2:53:09 PM
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CCCdnt
Posts: 359
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If Russia were to ultimately respond to this with a nuclear strike in Poland, what do you think the U.S. reponse would be?
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See for Yourself
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/21/2008 5:46:03 PM
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mapachito13
Posts: 2503
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Bush and Condi would disagree with that action in the "strongest possible terms" while Dubya lifts a Stolichnaya with his "good buddy" Putin.
_____________________________
Peace Sells....But Who's Buying!
"I would argue that the most serious threat to the United States is not someone hiding in a cave in Pakistan or Afghanistan, but our own fiscal irresponsibility."-David Walker, fmr comptroller general of the US
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/21/2008 5:57:01 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 1956
Joined: 10/12/2007
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quote:
ORIGINAL: CCCdnt
If Russia were to ultimately respond to this with a nuclear strike in Poland, what do you think the U.S. reponse would be?
I don't think the Russians have claimed that they are going to launch the missiles first.
I think the Russians are saying that if there is a nuclear war between the US and Russia, and Poland shoots down Russian missiles, Russia has the moral cassus belli to launch missiles at Poland. IMHO, this is somewhat reasonable, although I doubt things will get to nuclear war with Russia. Both sides are too wise to do something so foolish.
However, I think there's a 5% chance that a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe could precipitate a nuclear war. We don't want that. That's why we need to fortify Eastern Europe. Let's stick some Surface-Air Missile sites in Poland, get Europe a mutual defense treaty with China, and otherwise make sure that a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe would be extremely painful- without necessarily making Russian concerned that we might invade them or Russia's neighbors.
Alternatively, this would be a perfect opportunity to depose Castro.
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/21/2008 6:10:12 PM
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mapachito13
Posts: 2503
Joined: 10/1/2007
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quote:
ORIGINAL: blessedinnyc
quote:
ORIGINAL: CCCdnt
If Russia were to ultimately respond to this with a nuclear strike in Poland, what do you think the U.S. reponse would be?
I don't think the Russians have claimed that they are going to launch the missiles first.
I think the Russians are saying that if there is a nuclear war between the US and Russia, and Poland shoots down Russian missiles, Russia has the moral cassus belli to launch missiles at Poland. IMHO, this is somewhat reasonable, although I doubt things will get to nuclear war with Russia. Both sides are too wise to do something so foolish.
However, I think there's a 5% chance that a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe could precipitate a nuclear war. We don't want that. That's why we need to fortify Eastern Europe. Let's stick some Surface-Air Missile sites in Poland, get Europe a mutual defense treaty with China, and otherwise make sure that a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe would be extremely painful- without necessarily making Russian concerned that we might invade them or Russia's neighbors.
Alternatively, this would be a perfect opportunity to depose Castro.
You have a great career ahead of you as an international diplomat! Please forward this idea to Condi since this admin will not come up with something this practical!
_____________________________
Peace Sells....But Who's Buying!
"I would argue that the most serious threat to the United States is not someone hiding in a cave in Pakistan or Afghanistan, but our own fiscal irresponsibility."-David Walker, fmr comptroller general of the US
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/22/2008 5:51:59 AM
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Kapa_brn
Posts: 13
Joined: 8/11/2008
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quote:
ORIGINAL: blessedinnyc
get Europe a mutual defense treaty with China, and otherwise make sure that a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe would be extremely painful- without necessarily making Russian concerned that we might invade them or Russia's neighbors.
I don't think China will ever come to your side, if u wanna invade Russia, be sure, China won't look after accumulation of US influence in THEIR region with indifference.
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/22/2008 6:10:41 AM
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Kapa_brn
Posts: 13
Joined: 8/11/2008
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quote:
ORIGINAL: rlj
I wonder what the League will do? Stop buying oil and natural gas from Russia?
2008 Europe stops buying oil and natural gas from Russia ->
2008 Sales of bicycles and firewood in Europe go up ->
2020 Ecological situation and phisical trainings in Europe lead nations to health!!! ->
2021 Great European army take the field to Russia
2025 Great European army arrives to Russian border, but their shoes are so worn down the heells.
2025 Great European army loses the Battle because their bludgeons can't break armour of Russian tanks.
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/22/2008 8:43:06 AM
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huangshan
Posts: 766
Joined: 8/6/2008
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Bush gives Putin the worst nickname ever.
Russia invades Georgia.
Connection?
Undeniable.
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/22/2008 12:42:25 PM
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cog41
Posts: 616
Joined: 7/16/2006
From: The Great State of Texas
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quote:
However, I think there's a 5% chance that a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe could precipitate a nuclear war. We don't want that.
I'd say 10% chance w/o the nuclear part. Nope we don't need that.
_____________________________
Psalm 122:6 Pray for the peace of Jerusalem: "May they prosper who love you."
Hook'em Horns! Roll Tide!
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/22/2008 3:13:35 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 1956
Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: online
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26306913/
What has me concerned here is that I see all of this talk, but no defense infrastructure.
At the very least, we should be helping Poland set up air defense sites (with surface-to-air missiles), and start protecting the EU's borders with anti-tank mines- or any other mostly-for-defense stuff we can think of. Rice seems to be discounting the potential for the Russians to call our bluff on this defense treaty. We need to back up these words with some action. In some ways, I see us making the same mistake we made in Iraq- making a commitment without taking as much action as we should.
I would go further to suggest that we make sure we start stocking up on bombers at air force bases within range of Russia- simply to make it even more painful for Russia to move its Air Force piece into Poland in the military game of chess, but I don't think that's currently worth escalating tensions.
Looking at the map, (http://www.ezilon.com/european_maps.htm) Russia has a huge geographical advantage if you're trying to stop them from invading.
quote:
I'd say 10% chance w/o the nuclear part. Nope we don't need that.
True, true. I'm saying that on the conditional probability that Russia invades, the chance of a nuclear war would become 5%, thus pinning the current odds (using your numbers and mine) at 10%*5%=0.5%.
This number is unacceptably high, IMHO.
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/23/2008 12:36:07 AM
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Kapa_brn
Posts: 13
Joined: 8/11/2008
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May be it's time to create new topic and call it "Russia versus USA"??
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/23/2008 10:25:00 AM
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rlj
Posts: 2179
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quote:
May be it's time to create new topic and call it "Russia versus USA"??
Probably not. Every time myself or someone else has ever mentioned that Russia was better than the doormat Bush treated them as they were met with a rebuke of "Russia is powerless we won the cold war". : /
_____________________________
-Roger
This is who I'm voting for. He is from the same party I voted for last time. This is consistent with my belief in the failure of the two party system and my disgust with it.
http://www.baldwin08.com/#
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/23/2008 12:38:36 PM
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TaoPoohBear
Posts: 554
Joined: 1/18/2008
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quote:
ORIGINAL: rlj
quote:
May be it's time to create new topic and call it "Russia versus USA"??
Probably not. Every time myself or someone else has ever mentioned that Russia was better than the doormat Bush treated them as they were met with a rebuke of "Russia is powerless we won the cold war". : /
Backup QB Bush threw a couple of interceptions and put us into Overtime.
We can no longer have the force structure in Europe we once had. The Germans won't allow it for one, The EU would argue it to death as well. In the 80's the deterrence also relied on Theatre Nukes that are no longer there, and can't be put back.
Besides - with Mission Creep;
We're already over-committed.
We're effectively back to MAD ((Mutual assured destruction)
Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
Russian Deliverable Warheads - 3,242
Russian Stockpile - 16,000
Example: Russian SS-18 carries ten 800 KT nuclear warheads. (Limit by the START treaty - in theory the most advanced version of SS-18 can carry 38x 250 kt yield, 24x 500 kt yield, or 17x 1 Mt yield).
The Nagasaki bomb was 21 KT
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/23/2008 1:48:57 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 1956
Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: online
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quote:
ORIGINAL: TaoPoohBear
We can no longer have the force structure in Europe we once had. The Germans won't allow it for one, The EU would argue it to death as well. In the 80's the deterrence also relied on Theatre Nukes that are no longer there, and can't be put back.
Besides - with Mission Creep;
We're already over-committed.
Poland certainly seems antsy, though. You'd think we could work things out individually with them- just to supply them with some materials- not actually send them troops or anything.
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/23/2008 2:43:08 PM
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TaoPoohBear
Posts: 554
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quote:
ORIGINAL: blessedinnyc
quote:
ORIGINAL: TaoPoohBear
We can no longer have the force structure in Europe we once had. The Germans won't allow it for one, The EU would argue it to death as well. In the 80's the deterrence also relied on Theatre Nukes that are no longer there, and can't be put back.
Besides - with Mission Creep;
We're already over-committed.
Poland certainly seems antsy, though. You'd think we could work things out individually with them- just to supply them with some materials- not actually send them troops or anything.
We kinda put the cart before the horse already, the Russians feel that an ABM is a 1st strike weapon in that it can knock out their main deterrent in the boost phase (ICBMs, since we can track their subs with hunter/killer Seawolfs & their cruise missles don't have the range).
Regular equipment and even troops would have gone over alot better then anti-ballistic missiles.
The Poles are not being very realistic, or they're assuming that their NATO membership is some kind of invincibility charm. Mutual defense treaties didn't work out too well for them in '39, you'd think that they'd have learned.
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/23/2008 2:45:46 PM
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rlj
Posts: 2179
Joined: 4/14/2005
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quote:
Example: Russian SS-18 carries ten 800 KT nuclear warheads. (Limit by the START treaty - in theory the most advanced version of SS-18 can carry 38x 250 kt yield, 24x 500 kt yield, or 17x 1 Mt yield).
The Nagasaki bomb was 21 KT
Didn't they throw out START when we tossed the ABM treaty? Or perhaps they will just surprise us one day. ; )
I will probably now remember Dubya not as the man who destroyed Iraq but as the man who single handedly snatched cold war defeat from the powerful jaws of victory.
_____________________________
-Roger
This is who I'm voting for. He is from the same party I voted for last time. This is consistent with my belief in the failure of the two party system and my disgust with it.
http://www.baldwin08.com/#
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/23/2008 3:08:18 PM
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TaoPoohBear
Posts: 554
Joined: 1/18/2008
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quote:
ORIGINAL: rlj
quote:
Example: Russian SS-18 carries ten 800 KT nuclear warheads. (Limit by the START treaty - in theory the most advanced version of SS-18 can carry 38x 250 kt yield, 24x 500 kt yield, or 17x 1 Mt yield).
The Nagasaki bomb was 21 KT
Didn't they throw out START when we tossed the ABM treaty? Or perhaps they will just surprise us one day. ; )
I will probably now remember Dubya not as the man who destroyed Iraq but as the man who single handedly snatched cold war defeat from the powerful jaws of victory.
Yeah, the thing that caught my eye doing this research was -
Russian Deliverable Warheads - 3,242
Russian Stockpile - 16,000
U.S. Deliverable Warheads - 6,390
U.S. Stockpile - 10,640
Ya think they might just be breaking a few out of storage?
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/28/2008 3:01:18 PM
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CCCdnt
Posts: 359
Joined: 3/10/2006
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Putin accuses U.S. of orchestrating Georgian war
SOCHI, Russia (CNN) -- Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has accused the United States of orchestrating the conflict in Georgia to benefit one of its presidential election candidates.
In an exclusive interview with CNN's Matthew Chance in the Black Sea city of Sochi Thursday, Putin said the U.S. had encouraged Georgia to attack the autonomous region of South Ossetia.
Putin told CNN his defense officials had told him it was done to benefit a presidential candidate -- Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are competing to succeed George W. Bush -- although he presented no evidence to back it up.
Full Artile
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/28/2008 4:01:14 PM
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mapachito13
Posts: 2503
Joined: 10/1/2007
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quote:
ORIGINAL: TaoPoohBear
We kinda put the cart before the horse already, the Russians feel that an ABM is a 1st strike weapon in that it can knock out their main deterrent in the boost phase (ICBMs, since we can track their subs with hunter/killer Seawolfs & their cruise missles don't have the range).
Regular equipment and even troops would have gone over alot better then anti-ballistic missiles.
The Poles are not being very realistic, or they're assuming that their NATO membership is some kind of invincibility charm. Mutual defense treaties didn't work out too well for them in '39, you'd think that they'd have learned.
Very well said. I especially agree with the last part.
If people in other NATO countries such as the Bulgarians or Romanians or Turks don't want us to put those things in their country to protect them or Europe from "Iranian" missles then we picked Poland because of a perceived Russian threat. Looks like the Russians know their geography better than Bush thinks they do!
_____________________________
Peace Sells....But Who's Buying!
"I would argue that the most serious threat to the United States is not someone hiding in a cave in Pakistan or Afghanistan, but our own fiscal irresponsibility."-David Walker, fmr comptroller general of the US
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RE: Russia versus Georgia - 8/28/2008 4:08:41 PM
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SwedishCovenant
Posts: 606
Joined: 8/8/2008
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quote:
ORIGINAL: CCCdnt
If Russia were to ultimately respond to this with a nuclear strike in Poland, what do you think the U.S. reponse would be?
Uncontrollable laughter.
"YOU IDIOTSKIS!" our Ambassador would roar, beside himself, "Didn't anyone tell you that the prevailing winds will blow the fallout RIGHT BACK INTO THE RICHEST PART OF RUSSIA?"
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